The Sir is for turning

Good Sunday afternoon, Crunchers. This is Mason Boycott-Owen, here with all of your weekend political news on this lovely bank holiday weekend.

THINGS TO KNOW

THE SIR IS FOR TURNING: Prime Minister Keir Starmer looks set to U-turn on two of his most unpopular policies, after months of suffering the damage that they have caused to the Labour Party’s morale and his reputation with the public.

Two-turns: Reports have been circling for weeks that Starmer would reverse the widely hated winter fuel cut — he eventually confirmed speculation at Wednesday’s PMQs by announcing a partial reversal — and now the government is reportedly looking at axing the widely hated two-child benefit cap, which was originally introduced by the Tories but kept in place by Starmer last year despite an outcry.

Find the cheddar, Rachel: The Observer goes big on the child benefit cap plans, reporting that Starmer has already made up his mind and told the Treasury to find the money, with an announcement that could come before the summer. One senior government official suggested that things aren’t quite at that stage just yet, as it is being looked at by the now-delayed Child Poverty Taskforce, which is set to report towards the back-end of the year.

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No comment: Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner told the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg that she is “not going to speculate on what our government is going to do” about the benefit cap, despite that being the entire point of putting a minister on the morning round. She did give a bit of a hint that she is in favor of the idea, telling Sky’s Trevor Phillips: “Lifting any measures that will alleviate poverty for some of the poorest families is not a bad idea.”

We’ll do something at some point: Rayner told Phillips that the winter fuel plans won’t be completely scrapped, but rather Labour will “do something around the eligibility” when “economic conditions allow” at a “future fiscal event.”

How soon is now? Given these are rather chunky financial decisions — the winter fuel cut aimed to save £1.4 billion, and the two-child benefit cap saves the taxpayer about £3.5 billion a year — the full details and confirmations of both may not even come in the June 11 spending review. All eyes on the second half of the year with Labour conference and the budget as potential landing zones for the full details.

Computer says no: In a damning indictment of either the state of the civil service, or of the civil service’s work ethic, the Sunday Times reports that ministers have been told it would be “impossible” to reverse the cut before this winter due to an “overhaul of ageing computer systems.”

Reeves’ headache: The Sunday papers have a lot to say about Chancellor Rachel Reeves, and very little of it is good. The Mail on Sunday writes that she is preparing to ditch her fiscal rules — according to “a source” — due to pressure from public sector borrowing, public sector pay rises and higher benefits and pensions. Now she has to find some more billions to pay for the U-turns.

Reeves’ migraine: The Sunday Times says things are worse than that, suggesting that tax rises are now inevitable — which will please Rayner (more on her later) — and that Starmer will see off a cabinet revolt when departments see real-terms cuts in the spending review.

Angry cabinet: The Observer reports, in a rather brutal long-read on a dysfunctional No 10, that both Rayner and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband have “stormed” out of meetings with Darren Jones, Reeves’ deputy in the Treasury, over cuts to their departments.

Angry MPs: The proposed cuts to welfare are still causing dismay and anger amongst Labour’s MPs, with around 150 thought to be looking to rebel against the government following DWP assessments that the changes could plunge hundreds of thousands of people into relative poverty. A vote on the welfare reforms isn’t expected until June, after the spending review.

Angry at the boys: The accusations of a No 10 boy’s club are rearing their head again, with one minister telling the Observer: “I see the briefings. Why do I keep reading that it’s all the women they want to fire?” It’s not only female ministers that are getting briefed against — it’s happening to female aides in No 10 as well.

His Majesty’s unofficial opposition: Nigel Farage will skip down the well-trodden opposition path of “say you’ll undo the very unpopular stuff which the government is doing.” The Sunday Telegraph reports that he will pledge to fully reinstate winter fuel payments and scrap the two-child benefit cap. You can expect his intervention on Tuesday.

Not quite flanking: Kemi Badenoch — the current leader of the Conservative Party (more on that later) — has taken a different approach. She told Sky’s Phillips that the two-child benefit cap needs to stay, adding her leadership’s motto: “It may not be popular, but it’s absolutely the right thing to do.” She added that she would reverse some of the winter fuel payment changes. Though she didn’t give specifics, she added that millionaires shouldn’t get the payment.

LABOUR UNITY LATEST: On the morning media round Rayner was also trying to sell Labour’s new planning reforms, which could see fines for developers that don’t build enough homes — which gets picked up by various papers today. Unfortunately for Rayner she spent most of her time being asked about the coup she’s supposed to be running against the Prime Minister.

A leak that’s good for Rayner: Things kicked off on Tuesday night when the Telegraph published a memo from Rayner to Reeves in which she called for hefty tax increases. Leadership challenge rumors have been swirling ever since, given that particular memo probably flies quite well with Labour members who don’t like Starmer’s spending cuts.

A leak that’s bad for Rayner: The leaked memo has clearly irked Downing Street, with much of that ire finding its way into the Sun on Sunday. The paper was told by a “government source” that Rayner actually spoke out against the welfare cuts despite the memo. The Sunday Times quotes a “source” who says the leak is “just Angela being Angela,” while another tells the Observer that “Angela tends to put her head above the parapet when she senses weakness in Keir.”

Coup klaxon: The Mail on Sunday reports claims that Rayner’s supposed coup is being funded by the trade unions and is masterminded by former MP Sam Tarry (who Starmer sacked from his frontbench in 2022). A “source close to Ms Rayner” said the claims were “absolute nonsense.” The Independent says there is a full-blown plot among the party’s “soft-left” to remove Starmer.

It Wasn’t Me: Rayner told the BBC’s Kuenssberg: “I do not leak. I think leaks are very damaging,” and told Phillips that a leak inquiry is already underway.

I don’t even want to be PM: She told said on both Sky and the Beeb that she doesn’t want to be leader of the Labour Party, telling Phillips that she “never” wants this, in a move that would be devastating for her supporters if it were true.

TORY UNITY LATEST: Badenoch has always said that the process of rebuilding her party’s reputation will be a difficult one. Last week the party slipped behind the Lib Dems into 4th place, according to one poll, and the party isn’t too pleased, with the Times last week reporting that there is a grassroot plot of local associations looking to put pressure on her to resign.

Pew pew: Perhaps sensing the circling sharks, she’s had a media blitz today, despite very little to announce. She has a rather spicy op-ed in the Sunday Telegraph where she says Starmer is “cheered on by terrorists” and “more interested in photo ops and newspaper headlines than the safety of our nation.”

Not a genocide: Continuing her broadside against the Starmer on the morning round with Sky’s Phillips, she didn’t distance herself from comments made by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s in reaction to the U.K.’s joint statement on Gaza. She went on to say that Israel’s actions in Gaza is not a genocide, but rather a “very difficult situation.”

Err … is that the line? Badenoch told Phillips that Israel is fighting a “proxy war on behalf of the U.K.” against Iran, “just like Ukraine is on behalf of Western Europe against Russia.”

Operation Get Big Dog Back: The top secret plot to oust Badenoch is getting a lot of coverage in several papers this weekend. The Sun on Sunday writes that a group of former Tory MPs are trying to tempt Boris Johnson back from exile to save the party.

Welcome back, Tories, we’ve missed you: We don’t recommend Badenoch reads The Sunday Times, where Tim Shipman has written about how the party’s Damascene conversion to not axing its own leaders looks to be short-lived. Dissenters are reportedly looking at various mechanisms to remove her as leader before Nov. 2 (the earliest a no-confidence vote can be held under party rules.)

Yeesh: One former senior Tory government advisor told Crunch: “Kemi’s promise to renew the Conservative Party has delivered nothing but a death spiral over the past six months, with plummeting poll numbers, disastrous local election results, and the humiliation of falling behind the Liberal Democrats. Her lack of leadership, direction, and vision is driving the party into oblivion. We simply cannot continue on this path. If the Conservative Party is to stand any hope of surviving, we must change course.”

QUICK-FIRE CATCH-UP

I CHOO-CHOO-CHOOSE YOU: The renationalization of the railways has begun today as South Western Railway (SWR) became the first to come under public control. Up next is set to be c2c in July with Greater Anglia to follow in October. The process is scheduled to complete by 2027.

CONGRATULATIONS: Boris and Carrie Johnson have announced the birth of their fourth child together: Poppy Eliza Josephine Johnson (aka ‘Pop Tart,’ per Carrie’s Instagram). How the former prime minister will find the time to change these extra nappies while reportedly coming back to save the Conservative Party from electoral oblivion is yet to be seen.

SEXUAL MISCONDUCT: Lib Dem MP Cameron Thomas has been accused of an “abuse of power” after the Mail on Sunday and Sun on Sunday report that he sexted a Ukrainian translator during a parliamentary visit to Ukraine. A spokesperson for Thomas says: “These are private messages between two people who have remained in contact.” The Lib Dems refused to comment.

POST OFFICE LATEST: Alan Bates, who led the campaign for sub-postmasters affected by the Post Office scandal, has delivered a broadside against the government’s handling of the situation, revealing to the Sunday Times that he has been offered less than half of his original claim.

CALL IN THE SPOOKS: The Mail on Sunday reports that Britain’s MI5 intelligence service has been called in to probe any potential links between the alleged arson attack on Starmer’s property and Russia. The Sun on Sunday, the FT, and the Sunday Mirror also report that potential Russian involvement is now being probed by security officials and police.

MEDDLING LATEST: The Trump administration’s penchant for meddling in other people’s democracies is set to continue, with the Sunday Telegraph reporting that U.S. officials have been sent to interview activists who had been arrested for protesting outside abortion clinics in Britain.

RUSSIA LATEST: Russia has launched a deadly overnight attack against Ukraine as the two sides complete the biggest exchange of prisoners since the start of the war.

MEDIA ROUND

Ayesha Hazarika on Times Radio (4 p.m. to 7 p.m.): Labour MP Joe Morris … Tory MP John Lamont … Lib Dem MP Jess Brown-Fuller … HuffPost’s Kevin Schofield.

WEEK AHEAD

MONDAY 26

PARLIAMENT: Commons and Lords recess until June 2.

O CANADA: King Charles and Camilla visit Canada and meet Prime Minister Mark Carney.

HOLS: Spring bank holiday.

ROMANIA: New Romanian president due to be sworn in.

TUESDAY 27

AS IS TRADITION: King Charles speech to open Canadian parliament.

SPEECH: U.S. Ambassador Peter Mandelson speech to the Atlantic Council in Washington.

RUSSIA: Security officials from Russia-allied countries meet in Moscow.

WEDNESDAY 28

COVID: Health official Jenny Harries and life peer Dido Harding at the Covid-19 inquiry.

UN: United Nations Security Council session on the Middle East and Palestine.

U.S.: American Vice-President JD Vance speaks at Bitcoin Conference.

THURSDAY 29

SPEECH: Attorney General Richard Hermer gives the Royal United Services Institute’s annual security lecture.

FRIDAY 30 

COURT: Russell Brand in court on rape charges.

FRANCE: French President Emmanuel Macron delivers keynote speech at the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.

SATURDAY 31

FOOTY: Men’s UEFA Champions League final.

SUNDAY 1

FAREWELL, OLD FRIEND: Disposable vapes ban comes into force.

Writing Monday morning Playbook: Andrew McDonald.

Thanks: To Joe Stanley Smith for giving Crunch some Sunday sparkle.

**A message from Lloyds Banking Group: The UK is facing a severe shortage of genuinely affordable homes, with growing demand for social rent housing. At Lloyds Banking Group, we believe the private sector has a critical role to play in addressing this challenge. That’s why we’ve published a new prospectus for action – a set of policy and investment proposals to help deliver the social homes the country needs. The paper includes two new investment mechanisms that could support the delivery of up to 200,000 social rent homes over the next decade. We’re also calling for wider reforms to strengthen the social housing sector, from unlocking land and accelerating planning, to boosting investor confidence and supporting housing associations to scale. This is a bold step forward – part of our wider commitment to champion social housing and help build a more resilient and inclusive housing system for the future. Find out more.**

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