Labour’s Brexit

Good Sunday afternoon, Crunchers. This is Mason Boycott-Owen, here with all of your weekend politics news ahead of tomorrow’s EU reset summit in London.

THINGS TO KNOW

LABOUR’S BREXIT: Tomorrow the European Union will descend on London for yet another summit, as Prime Minister Keir Starmer seeks to renegotiate Boris Johnson’s trade deal with the bloc — more than four years after it came into force following Brexit.

It’s literally still happening: Negotiations are ongoing today, and despite the appearance that some things seem to be sorted, trade-offs could see some things shift ahead of tomorrow’s announcement. The Guardian reported that EU ambassadors are meeting in Brussels today to agree to any further compromises on either side.

The art of the deal: The deal risks aiming to placate everyone and pleasing nobody, with those who wish they were still in Europe feeling it is tinkering around the edges, while staunch Brexiteers see any concession as an utter surrender. The Sunday Express picks an interesting tone on a week when men are in court accused of attempting to burn down the PM’s house.

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Tough sell: Nick Thomas-Symonds, the government’s EU relations minister known by some as NTS, was on the airwaves this morning attempting to sell the deal to broadcasters.

So, what is this deal? As the foreign affairs committee points out, the government hasn’t published exactly what it wants, or exactly what’s on the table, so most people simply have to cobble this together from often contradictory statements in the press. A press release from No 10 overnight provides some hints, but here’s a wider rundown of the speculation.

Security: Near the top of the British agenda is a security and defense partnership (SDP). Though all the details may not be completely finalized tomorrow, parts of it on the table include access to the €150 billion EU rearmament fund Security Action for Europe (Safe) — which the U.K. and United States are currently barred from accessing without a defense partnership. The Sunday Times reports that the French and Germans are in disagreement on how much access Britain should get. Home Secretary Yvette Cooper will also be hoping for more law-enforcement cooperation, including on tackling people smuggling. The Observer adds that joint action on cybersecurity and maritime security will be part of this pact.

But maybe not? The Observer has spoken to Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief who is part of negotiations. She warned that it was too soon to be sure the pact would be signed, and indicated it could be as little as a declaration that Russia is Europe’s biggest threat, with the rest being sorted out later.

Alignment: Downing Street has been briefing that tomorrow’s deal will slash red tape and cut costs for U.K. producers and supermarkets, suggesting that this seems to be somewhat agreed. Much of this will come through dropping checks on food and animal products as well as agri-food imports known as SPS goods. However, this could cause headaches for ports. The trade-off of less bureaucracy means the U.K. must follow more EU regulations overseen by the European Court of Justice.

Not kicking back: NTS told the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg that the government would be willing to align with EU rules in some areas. He said it would be done “where it is in our national interest to align on common standards to make sure we get far easier trade, to mean that businesses that frankly have had to stop trading with the EU because of the red tape, can start trading with the EU again.”

Energy: Labour is keen to get involved with an emissions trading scheme with Brussels which can help the government stick to its promise to cut household energy bills. The Sunday Times adds that this will also see more interconnectors built between the U.K. and Europe.

Travel: It seems agreed — pending any last-minute catastrophes — that the EU will lift the ban on Brits using e-gates which result in longer queues for continental travel. The Sunday Times and the Guardian have written that up. This seemed to have been confirmed by the overnight release from Downing Street and by NTS on the morning round who confirmed it was on the table and a “very sensible objective,” when speaking to the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg

But: Any deal for enhanced visas for bands and artists to tour Europe which could help the cultural economy seems to be further away, after the FT reported last year that the EU would not be budging on it.

Fishies: The relic of the Brexit negotiation years is rearing its head once again, with the French access to British waters for fishing being one of the major negotiating points. The Sun on Sunday writes that any deal is set to last five years, while the Sunday Times reports that EU negotiators would look to limit Britain’s access to the defense fund on the same timescale if so. Meanwhile the Observer has been told that fishing and security are “100 percent” unrelated, but that arguments over the issue have caused the mood to deteriorate in negotiations.

Yoof: EU access for under-30s to study and work in the U.K. is a major demand from the EU side. The Sunday Telegraph reports that the EU is pushing for the scheme to last as long as three years, while the Sunday Times adds that although the two sides won’t agree on the terms and numbers tomorrow, the U.K. has conceded on allowing EU students to pay lower domestic tuition fees — potentially in another blow to university coffers — but Brits will regain access to the Erasmus student exchange scheme.

Handbags: Former Brexit negotiator David Frost suggested that the EU wants these concessions to help EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen get cheaper education for her kids studying in Britain.

In his own words: The Prime Minister sat down for an interview with the Times during his trip to Albania, where he suggested nobody wants to refight Brexit, and as long as the deal makes people feel better off; raises their living standards; preserves their jobs and future jobs; benefits their communities and makes them safer; and controls borders, then people will buy it.

What’s the bunse? A big question in the trade-off is how much the U.K. will have to pay to Brussels as part of the deal in order to access schemes such as the EU defense fund. The Mail on Sunday suggests that this could amount to hundreds of millions, or even billions, every year.

Can-kicking: Despite the summit being touted as a massive moment much of the detail won’t be sorted until another of these yearly summits and the time in between. The Sunday Times reports that the exact level of access to the EU’s rearmament fund, touring visas and recognition of professional qualifications such as for the legal profession will be in this camp.

How the day will play out: The Sunday Times reports that Starmer will host a lunch on a warship, because he wants it to be all about the military and the defense industry, while the EU asked for it to be at a university because they want it to be about young people. The paper adds that there will be a press conference in No 10’s rose garden.

Setting the scene: Great Britain and fellow EU countries took part in last night’s final of the Eurovision song contest. GB — which hasn’t won in almost 30 years and has finished dead last five times in the years since — finished a typically underwhelming 19th place. What does this tell us? Almost nothing.

What Reform says: Reform leader Nigel Farage told the Mail on Sunday that “we should not be putting our army under an EU flag, let alone then paying for the privilege,” when referring to the defense schemes the U.K. could get access to. He told the Sunday Express that Starmer will regret his reset when faced with voters in the Red Wall.

What the Tories say: Most of the shadow cabinet are sticking to the party line of calling tomorrow a “surrender summit,” a “Brexit betrayal,” and other alliterative attacks. Writing for the Sun on Sunday, Shadow Foreign Secretary Priti Patel accused the youth mobility scheme of “reintroducing free movement by the back door.”

What Labour rebels say: Labour MP Graham Stringer also told the Sun on Sunday he has qualms with the youth scheme, telling the paper he has “concerns this undermines the referendum decision.”

What parliament says: Today, parliament’s Foreign Affairs select committee — chaired by Emily Thornberry, who ran against Starmer for the Labour leadership and was unceremoniously dumped from his ministerial team when he formed his first cabinet — published a detailed and critical letter to the PM about the government’s approach to the EU deal. It’s well worth a read.

What’s the tea? The letter says the government has a “perceived absence of a strategic vision” … with “no coherent narrative tying its various objectives within the reset together” … that the government has published no overview of what it actually wants … that it leaks to the press rather than debating policy in parliament … breathes heavily … that EU counterparts are unclear of what the government wants because of conflicting statements from ministers … that a security MoU is inadequate, especially if it doesn’t gain the U.K. access to EU defense programs … that the EU doesn’t seem to be prioritizing trade … that territories such as the Falklands and Gibraltar seem to have been largely ignored … and that youth mobility needs a Commons vote, but none is planned.

QUICK-FIRE CATCH-UP

U-TURN KLAXON: The i Paper’s Kitty Donaldson on Friday picked up murmurings from No 10 that the government could abandon its cut to the winter fuel payment — which most voters and a big chunk of Labour MPs hate. The Sun on Sunday reports that a U-turn could happen within weeks.

There it is again: The Sunday Times’ Caroline Wheeler reports similar today, adding that the two-child benefit cap could also be lifted amid discussions to bring forward policies to alleviate child poverty before MPs vote on welfare next month.

THAT’S IT, YES, IT’S WAR: The Sunday Times splashes on plans from the upcoming strategic defense review to establish a “home guard” of several thousand volunteers to protect Britain’s land-based infrastructure from terrorists and hostile states. The paper reports that this is based on the citizens’ militia created in 1940 to counter the threat of invasion by Nazi Germany. 

Don’t mention the sitcom: Plans for the new home guard — which is of course the subject of the TV show Dad’s Army — are reportedly being drawn up by the Ministry of Defence to be made from the civilian population, but separate from the army reserves. The review will also call for the Royal Navy to take a greater role in protecting undersea cables and pipelines.

Sterling dome: The paper reports that the review will call for investment in defensive shields to protect Britain against missile attacks, while the military wants a dozen more nuclear-powered submarines. The review is, rather adorably, referred internally as “hedgehog Britain.”

Review-wang: After the defense review, we will get the national security strategy in the weeks leading up to June’s NATO summit. Then we will get Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ spending review, before finally getting a “defence capability command paper” later in the year, which will contain the meat of how these new defense programs will actually work.

Speaking of threats: Counter-terrorism police have arrested a second man in connection with the suspected arson attacks on properties linked to the prime minister. A 21-year old Ukrainian man appeared in court last week, separately charged with three counts of arson with intent to endanger life.

And other threats: On Saturday, three Iranian men appeared in court accused of “engaging in conduct likely to assist a foreign intelligence service” after allegedly targeting journalists working for London-based media organization Iran International.

GATES NO LIKEY: The billionaire co-founder of Microsoft-turned billionaire charity funder Bill Gates has told the New York Times that it was “particularly surprising and a bit disappointing” that Starmer’s Labour cut the aid budget to fund defense spending.

Neither do other tycoons: Labour has upset other billionaires, with those on the Sunday Times Rich List telling the paper that their rich friends are having to flee Britain because they now have to pay tax in Britain due to April’s non-dom changes. The paper does note that this is the third successive year of declining wealth and falling billionaire count on its Rich List.

Fleeing private schools: The Sunday Times also gets the first glimpse at the private school attendance figures following the introduction of VAT to fees in January. The figures suggest a 2.4 percent (over 13,000) drop in the year to January 2025. Ministers have previously predicted that 3,000 would leave the private sector during the 2024-25 academic year, rising to 14,000 by summer 2026.

PRISONS: The Sunday Times has details of the government’s upcoming review of sentencing which includes suggestions of cutting the number of women going to prison by two thirds, and even closing one of the 12 women’s prisons before the end of the parliament. Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood has written for the Sunday Telegraph about the biggest shake-up in sentencing for more than 30 years.

REFORM’S REGIONS: The Sunday Telegraph reports that Reform are looking to scrap low-traffic neighborhoods (LTNs) in the local areas they now have control, while the Mail on Sunday runs with how the party’s new powerbase of councillors will try and force more inquiries into grooming gangs.

UKRAINE LATEST: Moscow attacked Ukraine with 273 drones earlier today, two days after Russian President Vladimir Putin snubbed ceasefire talks with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Turkey.

POPE: Leaders from around the world converged on Rome to celebrate Pope Leo XIV’s installation as the new leader of the Catholic Church.

ROMANIA ELECTS: Voters have headed to the polls in Romania to choose their next president. Hard-right presidential front-runner George Simion has already warned of a fraud risk. Turnout is key in this one.

PORTUGAL ELECTS: Portugal’s voters are casting their ballots in the country’s snap election today. A similar result to the last one seems the most likely outcome.

POLAND ELECTS: Presidential elections are taking place in Poland: Expect a tight-run contest.

MAYOR SMITHY: The Mail on Sunday asks whether Gavin and Stacey actor James Corden could become “Mayor Smithy” as he is interested in running to replace Sadiq Khan in London. The answer is, of course, no. The Sun on Sunday has previously suggested that the more popular actor Idris Elba could be in the running for the gig.

WHAT’S A FURRY? The Mail on Sunday reports that a senior Tory accidentally sent a photograph to colleagues of himself dressed as a dog being led on a leash.

MEDIA ROUND

Ayesha Hazarika on Times Radio (4 p.m. to 7 p.m.): Labour MP Jake Richards … Tory MP Bernard Jenkin … Lib Dem MP James MacCleary … the i Paper’s Kitty Donaldson.

Westminster Hour (BBC Radio 4, 10 p.m.): Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Emily Thornberry … shadow Cabinet Office minister Alex Burghart … Lib Dem MP Victoria Collins … UK in a Changing Europe’s Anand Menon … Bloomberg’s Rosa Prince.

WEEK AHEAD

MONDAY 19

RESET: EU-U.K. reset summit in London.

LABOUR: Keir Starmer addresses the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP).

COMMONS: Defense questions, Mental Health Bill.

COMMITTEES: The Public Accounts Committee questions education department officials on increasing teacher numbers; the Joint National Security Strategy Committee hears from security experts on protecting undersea cables.

TERROR: Independent Reviewer of Terrorism Legislation Jonathan Hall lecture.

TUESDAY 20

COMMONS: Treasury questions, Victims and Courts Bill.

COMMITTEES: The Education Committee and Work and Pensions Committee speak to experts about the government’s Child Poverty Taskforce, Treasury Committee to quiz bank and building society bosses, British and Ukrainian foreign committees hold joint session on Russian disinformation, environment committee speaks to its secretary of state Steve Reed. 

ECONOMY: Meeting of G7 finance ministers and bank heads in Canada over three days.

WEDNESDAY 21

COMMONS: Northern Ireland questions, PMQs, opposition day debate.

LORDS: Government Response to the infected blood inquiry.

COMMITTEES: The Work and Pensions Committee speaks to experts on pensioner poverty; Joint Committee on Human Rights speaks Security Minister Dan Jarvis and the Metropolitan Police’s head of counter terrorism on transnational repression; Treasury Committee continues to quiz bank and building society bosses; energy committee speaks to planning and grid officials.

ECONOMY: U.K. inflation data.

THURSDAY 22

COMMONS: Culture and sport questions.

LORDS: Michael Gove introduced to the House of Lords.

MIGRATION: Immigration and migration statistics.

COVID: Former health secretary Matt Hancock and minister Patrick Vallance give evidence at the Covid-19 inquiry.

GONGS: The Press Awards.

FRIDAY 23

PARLIAMENT: Recess until June 2.

SATURDAY 24

U.S.: Donald Trump gives address at West Point Military Academy.

Writing Monday morning Playbook:

Thanks: To editor Joe Stanley-Smith for giving Crunch some Sunday sparkle.

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