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PRESENTED BY
Good Monday morning. This is Sam Blewett.
DRIVING THE DAY
ATTACK IS THE BEST DEFENSE: Keir Starmer will relish a chance to deploy tough talk on nukes, Russia and sticking Britain on a war footing today as he unveils the long-awaited strategic defense review. But for all the prime minister’s fondness for embracing the military, it’s yet another subject that exposes the government’s vulnerable flank on the public finances. Expect plenty of tough questions on exactly how (and when) he’ll fulfill his pledges to divert more of the nation’s limited resources toward facing the threat of war.
The air war: Starmer is on a visit in Scotland to set out the SDR with a short speech, followed by a media Q&A from 10 a.m. But first, he’ll take on the 8.10 a.m. slot on Radio 4’s Today program. There are defense questions galore, and no shortage of thorny domestic topics the PM could be grilled on too.
Subs dominate: The big trail into today contains a pledge to build “up to” 12 new nuclear-powered attack submarines under the AUKUS program. No. 10 hopes that ramping up industrial capacity at Barrow and Raynesway will result in a new boat built every 18 months, with Downing Street’s release claiming this should support more than 9,000 jobs and drive growth. The PM also confirmed that £15 billion will be spent on Britain’s warhead program at Aldermaston in Berkshire.
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You and what army? Starmer will accept all 62 recommendations in the 140-page report led by Labour peer and former NATO Secretary-General George Robertson. As the Guardian’s Dan Sabbagh reports, it’ll conclude that Britain needs to be prepared to fight a war in Europe or the Atlantic — but won’t set out an immediate increase in the size of the armed forces. It will, however, make the case for the military to move to a “warfighting readiness” to deter the growing threats faced by the U.K. It’ll also cover the lessons learned from Ukraine, including the need for modern tech like drones.
Here’s one hell of a lesson: Volodymyr Zelenskyy last night praised a “brilliant operation” in which Ukraine launched a series of strikes on 40 Russian warplanes at four military bases using smuggled drones. Kyiv said 117 drones were used in the audacious plot that was more than 18 months in the making and hit 34 percent of the Kremlin’s strategic cruise missile carriers stationed at air bases. Quite the operation ahead of another round of peace talks starting between Russia and Ukraine in Turkey today. Reuters has seen the proposals.
Get your magnifying glasses out: The full review will be published here around 3.30 p.m. when Defence Secretary John Healey gives a statement to the Commons. Having dashed back to Westminster from the Scottish launch, Healey will be grilled by MPs as they simultaneously try to digest the 45,000-word report. “Always look for the down arrows,” advises one military-minded MP, eager to know just where the cuts lie.
Then dust off your calculators: So much of the report was carefully trailed over the weekend (as nicely summed up in Sunday Crunch) but the tricky point Labour has been unable to keep off this morning’s front pages is a row over when the government will hit its target of spending 3 percent of GDP on the military. The Mail splash screams about Labour’s “defense spending retreat” while the Telegraph declares that the review is already “in disarray.”
In fairness to the PM … he did always describe 3 percent as an “ambition” for the next parliament. But then came Healey sounding somewhat more gung-ho on Saturday, telling the Times he has “no doubt” it will be achieved by 2034. He then appeared to downgrade it back to an ambition during broadcast interviews on Sunday — perhaps a sign that the Treasury’s bean counters had got to him. Whitehall officials insisted there had been no change in policy whatsoever, with one suggesting the target still could be hit “earlier in the [next] parliament, if the conditions allow.” We’ll see what Rachel Reeves thinks about that one.
Close your eyes, chancellor: Robertson and his co-authors — foreign policy expert Fiona Hill and retired Army officer Richard Barrons — made clear in an article for the Telegraph that their recommendations covering the next decade are based on what they see as the government’s “vitally” important decision to raise spending to 3 percent of GDP in the next parliament, up from the 2.5 percent it’s due to reach by 2027/28 (thanks to a decimation of the foreign aid budget).
But would even that be enough? Donald Trump’s administration clearly wants Britain and other European allies to move much faster — and so does NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who’s expected to use the leaders’ summit in The Hague later this month to urge that they move to 3.5 percent and then 5 percent. The Overton window on this stuff is moving fast.
MAGA’s long shadow: While defense reviews in recent years dwelt on “Global Britain” and the “Indo-Pacific tilt,” my colleague Esther Webber makes clear in her great primer today that the harsh reality of the war in Ukraine was always likely to provoke a sharp swerve back toward Europe. The review will concentrate on a “NATO-first” approach. But it’s not just that war — the sands have also been shifting since the SDR was launched last July, what with Trump’s pivot away from protecting Europe.
Reading between the lines: The kind of resources the report calls for will give an indication of just how Britain believes the U.S. is pulling back. Mike Martin, the Lib Dem MP who sits on the defense select committee, told Playbook plans to increase ship building, as well as the Sunday Times’s report that Britain wants to purchase fighter jets capable of firing nuclear weapons, are both indicators the government believes is the U.S. is going to “significantly disengage from Europe.”
Paging Beijing: Much of this has been billed as a “message to Moscow,” and Germany’s defense chief Carsten Breuer telling the BBC that NATO needs to prepare for a possible Russian attack within the next four years underscores why. But it’ll also be worth watching how China reacts. The report will brand Beijing a “sophisticated and persistent challenge,” just as ministers try desperately to foster closer ties. Starmer will no doubt also have a careful response up his sleeve to U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth claiming Beijing is posing an “imminent” threat to Taiwan.
FILLING THE BARRACKS: Playbook is told Healey will set out more on longer-term ambitions on troop numbers — but this is a sore spot for the defense secretary, who often berated the Tories in opposition for having allowed the size of the Army to shrink below Napoleonic levels. His immediate focus is turning around the current trajectory to get back up to the target strength of 73,000, with numbers having slumped to a little over 70,000.
Dad’s army: The review will contain talk of a “whole of society” approach to defending the realm, with plenty about a new “home guard” to protect critical infrastructure, as well as a focus on reservists, cadets and retention. Ministers hope the latter will be helped a little by spending £1.5 billion repairing shoddy housing for troops.
An outbreak of unity: The one thing all of Labour’s opponents seem to agree on is that spending needs to be ramped up much quicker. Tory Shadow Defence Secretary James Cartlidge claimed Healey has been “hung out to dry” by Reeves and the Lib Dems suggested the current timeline shows a “worrying lack of urgency.” Even the Greens’ statement last night acknowledged the “need for greater defence spending” — showing just how comprehensively this argument has been won.
Which will leave Healey a little more confident … when he faces his backbenchers at a behind-closed-doors meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party at 6.30 p.m. We’ll see if he expresses any sympathy with them over the chancellor’s tight-fisted approach to the finances. As a Survation poll reported by the Times points out, two-thirds of Labour MPs are opposed to the chancellor’s rigid fiscal rules, and blame them for making it harder to raise living standards and improve public services.
Follow the leaderboard: Ready a tally for just how many times ministers mention how crucial national security is for their “plan for change.” Starmer already chalked up one mention in No. 10’s overnight press release. The Times’ Matt Dathan has a fun deep dive into the slogan — revealing it became so central to the government’s comms strategy that at one point Downing Street ran a leaderboard scoring ministers on how many times they could fit it into interviews. Defense Minister Luke Pollard will no doubt give it a decent crack when he takes on the morning broadcast round (timings at the end of the email).
But first, listen to: Politics at Sam and Anne’s. The pod will make a triumphant return after the Whitsun recess and will drop into your feeds shortly.
NIGEL GOES NORTH
THE OTHER BATTLEGROUND: MPs may be filing back into Westminster, but Nigel Farage is heading the opposite way with his deputy Richard Tice in tow. They’ll use a press conference in Aberdeen from 10 a.m. to hammer home plans to end the deindustrialization of Scotland.
An early skirmish: This is, of course, all gearing up for their big push in the Holyrood elections next year. But first there’s a by-election in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse on Thursday in which we’ll see whether Reform UK can make inroads en route to May 2026.
On the defensive: Farage, who has a walkabout in Hamilton lined up for later today, used an interview with the Scottish Sun to criticise Labour and the SNP’s attempts to cast him as the “bogeyman” of Scottish politics. And right on cue, PA carries quotes from First Minister and SNP Leader John Swinney greeting Farage north of the border by insisting he “doesn’t care about Scotland” and “poses a threat to our values.”
Farage, the shrinking violet: The Sun’s Harry Cole (whose column appears in the paper under his new editor-at-large byline; Playbook is told to expect the announcement of his successor this week) reports that the No. 1 attention seeker in British politics might actually be planning to step back from doing day-to-day media. Cole reports that Farage will instead give a little more limelight to figures like Tice and party Chair Zia Yusuf — and suggests now could be the time he appoints a lieutenant to shadow Rachel Reeves.
Right on cue: Yusuf has his own visit lined up for Kent today — as he launches Reform’s first “Doge” unit to attempt to slash council spending. We’ll see if their British imitation will be as successful as Elon Musk’s original.
OVER TO THE OTHER OPPOSITION: Robert Jenrick will spend another day courting headlines on law and order, appearing on Good Morning Britain at 7.35 a.m. The shadow justice secretary is planning to talk up his call for prison officers to be armed. The Conservatives are also anticipating that the rapid review they ordered from former prison governor Ian Acheson will be published this afternoon here.
Happily for Labour … the Sun’s splash serves up a glorious reminder of Britain’s shortest-serving PM — who has appeared in, er, a video promoting the whiskey brand of a bare-knuckle fighter once jailed for attacking a 78-year-old in a bar. “Liz Truss loves you,” she says in the clip. Truss’ spokesperson said she had attended the event at Scunthorpe United’s stadium to support the regeneration of the town, adding: “I thought the government believed in the rehabilitation of offenders.”
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TODAY IN WESTMINSTER
SAFETY FIRST: The Speaker’s Conference on the security of candidates, MPs and elections publishes its interim report around 9.30 a.m., focusing on the impact of abuse and intimidation on MPs and their staff. It’ll also make recommendations around reforming electoral law.
STOPPING THE BOATS LATEST: Ministers are under fresh pressure over small boats after more than 1,100 migrants arrived after crossing the Channel on Saturday — the highest number recorded in a single day so far this year. Diane Taylor reveals in the Guardian that staff at the Manston processing center received an 11th-hour appeal to work overtime to deal with the record number of arrivals.
More to come: The papers carry dire predictions of just how much worse the situation could get, with the Times’ Matt Dathan reporting the figures could pass 50,000 this year and the Telegraph’s Charles Hymas citing modeling suggesting it could hit nearly 46,000. Expect Home Secretary Yvette Cooper to face a rough ride over this at Home Office questions at 2.30 p.m.
BLEAK READING: Two-thirds of MPs represent constituencies in which at least a quarter of children are in poverty, according to analysis by Loughborough University for End Child Poverty Coalition. The highest levels were in the northeast, the West Midlands and Wales. The data will add fuel to Labour MPs arguing for the two-child benefit cap to be scrapped.
BEARING FRUIT: Planned border checks on fruit and vegetables imported from the EU will be scrapped after the government’s Brexit reset deal on agri-food trade, the i paper’s Arj Singh reports.
HOYLE’S TOUR: Commons Speaker Lindsay Hoyle spent nearly £5,500 on private planes during a 2023 trip to attend the Conference of Speakers of the U.K. House of Commons and Overseas Territories, the Mail’s David Churchill finds.
SW1 EVENTS: The Institute for Government holds a session on how the NHS can improve the way it spends money, with speakers including Observer Political Editor Rachel Sylvester at 10 a.m. … the Institute for Fiscal Studies looks ahead to the Spending Review with panelists including IFS Research Economist Bee Boileau at 11 a.m. … Transparency International UK, the APPG on anti-corruption and responsible tax and the APPG for fair elections hold a panel discussion with speakers including Communities Minister Rushanara Ali in the Attlee and Reid Room from 3.30 p.m. … and Budweiser Brewing Group UK&I hosts its parliamentary beer festival to mark the 10th anniversary of Beer Day Britain in the Jubilee Room from 6 p.m.
REPORTS OUT TODAY: A survey of hospitality businesses by industry bodies including UKHospitality finds a third are operating at a loss and 60 percent have had to cut jobs … and the County Councils Network warns six in ten of England’s largest local authorities are not confident of setting a balanced budget next year without more funding.
HOUSE OF COMMONS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with Home Office questions and the second reading of the Bus Services (No.2) Bill [HL] … and then the main business is motions on statutory instruments and the Women and Equalities Committee. Labour MP Steve Witherden has the adjournment debate on arms and military cargo export controls and Israel.
WESTMINSTER HALL: Debates from 4.30 p.m. on an e-petition about decriminalizing abortion (led by Labour MP Tony Vaughan).
On committee corridor: Former Justice Secretary Robert Buckland gives evidence to the Lords’ Autism Act 2009 Committee (2.45 p.m.).
HOUSE OF LORDS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with the introduction of Tory peers Simon Hart and Victoria Prentis followed by oral questions on the ECHR, BBC World Service and Ofcom … and then the main business is consideration of Commons amendments to the Data (Use and Access) Bill — with more to-and-fro in the row over AI and copyright — and the second reading of the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill.
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BEYOND THE M25
POLL OF POLES: Karol Nawrocki, a nationalist backed by the right-wing Law and Justice Party, narrowly won the Polish presidency on Sunday. He defeated the liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, from Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s center-right Civic Platform, in a run-off by 50.89 percent to 49.11 percent. POLITICO’s Wojciech Kość covered it here.
MIDDLE EAST LATEST: Foreign Office Minister Hamish Falconer urged Israel to allow humanitarian organizations to “deliver lifesaving aid … in line with humanitarian principles” after at least 31 people were killed near an aid distribution center in Rafah. The Israel Defense Forces denied opening fire near the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation Hub. Sky has more.
OPEN GOAL: Foreign Secretary David Lammy meets with the head of the Moroccan World Cup Committee in Rabat to ensure that British companies benefit from Morocco co-hosting the 2030 games. Lammy will also attend the Mo Ibrahim conference in Marrakesh to discuss the U.K.’s approach to Africa. The U.K. and Morocco have entered an enhanced strategic partnership that includes Britain’s endorsement of Morocco’s “autonomy plan” for Western Sahara. The FT wrote that one up.
UP IN COURT: Two people are on trial for allegedly harassing Justice Minister Alex Davies-Jones, at Cardiff Magistrates’ Court from 10 a.m.
ACROSS THE IRISH SEA: One man died during a security incident in a Carlow Town shopping center. Shots were fired and an army bomb disposal team was at the scene, the Irish Times said. Taoiseach Micheál Martin said he was “deeply shocked and saddened.”
COLORADO ATTACK: A man set people on fire at a Jewish event in Boulder, Colorado, on Sunday, wounding six. The FBI said the suspect, who used Molotov cocktails and a flamethrower in his attack, yelled “Free Palestine!” It comes after two Israeli Embassy staff members were shot dead in Washington last month. CNN has a live blog.
MEDIA ROUND
Armed Forces Minister Luke Pollard broadcast round: Times Radio (7.05 a.m.) … Sky (7.15 a.m.) … BBC Breakfast (7.30 a.m.) … LBC (7.50 a.m.) … GB News (8 a.m.) … GMB (8.30 a.m.) … 5 Live (8.45 a.m.) … Talk (9.20 a.m.).
Shadow Defence Secretary James Cartlidge broadcast round: GB News (7.30 a.m.) … Times Radio (7.45 a.m.) … LBC (8.05 a.m.) … Sky (8.15 a.m.) … Talk (8.35 a.m.).
Today program: Prime Minister Keir Starmer (8.10 a.m.).
Also on Times Radio Breakfast: Former Chief of the General Staff Richard Dannatt (8.05 a.m.) … former French National Rally MEP Patricia Chagnon (8.15 a.m.).
Also on Sky News Breakfast: Former Labour Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon, former Tory Defence Minister Tobias Ellwood and the Royal United Services Institute’s Director of Military Sciences Matthew Savill (all 8.30 a.m.).
Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast: Former UK Border Force Chief Immigration Officer Sara Pownall (7.05 a.m.) … former Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane (8.50 a.m.) … former Tory MP Jonathan Gullis (9.10 a.m.).
LBC News: UKHospitality Deputy Chief Executive Allen Simpson (7.50 a.m.) … Lib Dem MP Mike Martin (8.20 a.m.).
Politics Live (BBC Two 12.15 p.m.): Labour MP Jo White … Shadow Scotland Secretary Andrew Bowie … the Telegraph’s Annabel Denham … Everyday Sexism Project founder Laura Bates.
TODAY’S FRONT PAGES
POLITICO UK: UK has fingers in its ears over Trump’s defense threat.
Daily Express: Boats arriving “like taxis” as migrant numbers surge.
Daily Mail: Labour’s defense spending retreat.
Daily Mirror: One heart, two heroes.
Daily Star: Wish you were beer?
Financial Times: Bessent vows U.S. will never default as market data lays bare investor anxiety.
Metro: We’ve lost control.
The Daily Telegraph: Starmer’s defense strategy in disarray.
The Guardian: Exercise “better than drugs” to stop cancer returning.
The Independent: U.K. to build up to 12 new attack submarines.
The i Paper: Britain sends warning to Putin with 12 new attack submarines.
The Times: Ukraine drone swarm hits Russian airbases.
The Sun: Liz Truss flogging whiskey for ex-con in Scunthorpe.
LONDON CALLING
WESTMINSTER WEATHER: High of 23C — the parliamentary recess may be over, but the sun is sticking around.
SPOTTED: Former Downing Street Director of Communications Matthew Doyle enjoying the final performance of “The Gang of Three” at the King’s Head Theatre — a play about the internal power struggles of the Labour right in the 1970s.
NEW GIG: Anna Mikhailova will become Times Radio’s political editor in September after five years at the Mail on Sunday — just in time for party conference season.
CONGRATS TO: Luke Robert Black, who was reelected chair of the LGBT+ Conservatives for a final year in the position.
JOB ADS: Sky is hiring a social and audience engagement producer covering politics … and the Ministry of Defence is looking for a chief press officer.
NOW WATCH: BBC Analysis Editor Ros Atkins investigates whether Britain is broken on Panorama at 8 p.m.
LISTEN TO: Radio 4’s Rethink assesses how the U.K. discusses social housing with speakers including Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, also at 8 p.m.
NOW READ: The New Statesman’s George Eaton has a good report on Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor who has seldom not been seen as jostling for the Labour leadership. He set out a “popular left programme” in a speech to the Compass group over the weekend.
WRITING PLAYBOOK PM: Emilio Casalicchio.
WRITING PLAYBOOK TUESDAY MORNING: Sam Blewett.
BIRTHDAYS: Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard MP Alex Mayer … former Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi … Shadow Secretary of State for Wales Mims Davies … former Bridgend MP Katie Wallis … Global Counsel’s Fergus Cameron-Watt … former Welsh Office Minister and Cardiff North MP Jonathan Evans … BBC Politics’ Alex Partridge … impressionist Jon Culshaw.
PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editors Zoya Sheftalovich, Dan Bloom and Alex Spence, diary reporter Noah Keate and producer Dean Southwell.
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