Europe should avoid ‘angry divorce’ with US, defense chief warns

Europe needs to prepare for a reduction in the U.S. presence on the continent and spend more to arm itself, help Ukraine and fend off Russia, Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius said Wednesday.

"It is not only possible, but almost unavoidable that we shall need to stand on our own two feet in defense matters in Europe, because Americans will more and more withdraw from Europe," he said in his keynote speech at the Charlemagne Prize Forum on Europe.

Kubilius explained that while the U.S. will not abandon NATO, Washington is shifting its attention to the Indo-Pacific region due to China’s growing military threat.

To “avoid an emotional, angry divorce,” Kubilius said, Europeans must change their mindset: “Less complaining that we are being betrayed, and more rational preparation for a transatlantic division of responsibilities.”

Kubilius said that given the prospect of a U.S. drawdown, the war in Ukraine, and intelligence reports indicating that Russian President Vladimir Putin is becoming increasingly aggressive, Europe is now facing "the perfect storm," which could lead to a deep crisis.

"In the case of Russian aggression against a NATO or EU member state, we will face a battle-tested Russian army, with millions of drones,'" he said. "Are we ready for that? I doubt it."

But rather than panic, the EU should prepare. “As it’s often said: Never waste a good crisis to take bold decisions and reforms,” the commissioner said.

He wants EU members to make up for the "huge hole" in defense preparedness.

"Material preparedness means a radical increase in development and procurement of new weapons. And it means a ramp-up of industrial production on the European continent. For that we need enough financial resources," Kubilius said.

He said that at its summit next month in The Hague, NATO “will likely ask alliance members to raise their military capability targets by 30 percent. But allies are already 30 percent behind in delivering on existing capability targets.”

To achieve the new target, Europe must ramp up industrial production and strengthen "strategic enablers," such as space intelligence, command and control centers, and heavy airlift capabilities — areas where the continent is heavily dependent on the U.S.

“Definitely, it will cost a lot of money,” Kubilius warned, adding that the International Institute for Strategic Studies estimates it could cost up to $1 trillion for European allies to replace the current U.S. contribution to NATO.

While boosting their own defense, EU countries must also keep sending weapons and aid to Ukraine.

Both of those aims can be financed through the newly approved €150 billion Security Action for Europe (SAFE) loans-for-weapons instrument. “It can become a breakthrough in our support to Ukraine,” he said.

Given Kyiv's battle-tested army and the growing danger of Russian aggression, Kubilius said Ukraine, along with the United Kingdom, should be an integral part of a new European security architecture.

"Is peace in Ukraine and is victory for Ukraine possible after American withdrawal?” he asked. "My answer is yes! It is possible."