Tusk’s man in pole position for the Polish presidency

WARSAW — It’s always dangerous to predict the outcome of a Polish presidential election, but the odds are favoring Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski.

If, as polls predict, the centrist wins the first round on Sunday and then (if needed) a second round two weeks later, that would give an enormous boost to Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

Tusk has soared to the premier league of European leaders — as shown by Saturday’s visit to Kyiv alongside Germany’s Friedrich Merz, France’s Emmanuel Macron and the U.K.’s Keir Starmer. 

Tusk heads a country that is NATO’s top spender, has the largest army in Europe bar Turkey, and has one of the best economic growth records in the world. But his foreign policy luster has been undercut by his lagging performance at home, where his domestic reform agenda has been hobbled by incumbent President Andrzej Duda, allied with the nationalist opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party.

A Trzaskowski victory could change that scenario, as government legislation would no longer face a presidential veto — something that happened yet again this week when Duda shot down an effort to reform social security payments.

But it also increases the risk of catastrophic fallout if internal divisions block progress despite a friendly president.

Apartment allegations

Trzaskowski has run ahead of his PiS-backed rival Karol Nawrocki for the whole campaign, with Nawrocki running into serious trouble in recent weeks.

Nawrocki had been edging closer in opinion polls. Initially awkward in the spotlight, he gradually improved as a campaigner, culminating in a brief visit to the Oval Office May 2 to meet President Donald Trump, who reportedly told him: “You will win!”

But his campaign took damage in recent weeks thanks to allegations that he had acquired an apartment in return for taking care of a vulnerable pensioner, but then didn’t follow through on the deal. Giving the apartment to charity hasn’t made the issue go away.

During the final debate among 13 candidates on Polish television on Monday night, Nawrocki was subjected to withering attacks from his rivals.

“Your deceit is truly unbelievable,” said Trzaskowski, while Szymon Hołownia, the speaker of parliament and also a candidate, said: “Let me be clear: Karol Nawrocki is a liar.”

“I helped the man,” Nawrocki fired back.

An opinion poll by the IBRIS organization showed Trzaskowski leading Nawrocki by 31.5 percent to 23.6 percent. In the second round on June 1— where the top two candidates face off against each other — Trzaskowski would easily defeat both Nawrocki and far-right candidate Sławomir Mentzen.

Nawrocki’s troubles are a reflection on PiS, which reached outside the party to choose him as a candidate, said Rafał Chwedoruk, a professor of political science at Warsaw University.

“It’s one of the greatest political mysteries of recent years. How come a large, professional political party, with so many victorious campaigns under its belt, fields a candidate burdened with so much from the start?” Chwedoruk said.

Despite his troubles, Nawrocki strikes a chord with the nationalist, religious and more conservative voters who are PiS’s core supporters.

Adriana, 49, a teacher from Warsaw, says she’s been worse off with Trzaskowski as mayor since 2018.

“Nawrocki represents views close to mine: Christian, Catholic. Even if not everything about him appeals to me, at least I know who he is. With Trzaskowski, I don’t know what values he will say he stands for tomorrow,” she said, asking not to give her full name.

“I also think not all power should belong to the government coalition because I think they govern Poland poorly,” she added.

Attacking the mayor

Exploiting that sentiment, Nawrocki often calls Trzaskowski “Tusk’s deputy,” linking his rival to the government’s record on defense and security as well as unpopular EU policies on migration.

“I say no to the centers of immigrant integration. I want centers of deportation!” he told a rally on Saturday in the eastern city of Białystok, close to the Belarusian border.

Trzaskowski is striving to deliver a cautious, centrist message with carefully calculated nods to both conservatives, for example on migration, and left-leaning voters on women’s rights.

“Will we choose a president who represents only one tribe, or will we choose someone who will be the president of all Polish women and men?” Trzaskowski told a rally in the western city of Poznań in late April.

Trzaskowski vows to make Tusk’s life easier if he becomes president by not obstructing the government over issues like easing access to abortion. Women were crucial in Tusk’s 2023 victory, but frustration over the sluggish pace of subsequent reforms is already emerging.

The government has struggled to fulfill promises on rolling back PiS’s controversial judiciary reforms, boost environmental protection, ease draconian restrictions on abortion and punish corrupt PiS functionaries.

According to a survey by CBOS, a state-run polling company, 50 percent of Poles see their country heading in the wrong direction, up by 5 percentage points year-on-year and 13 since Tusk assumed office.

That dissatisfaction with both PiS and Tusk’s Civic Platform — which have battled for power for two decades — is seeing some support move to candidates like right-wing Mentzen, as well as left-wing candidates Magdalena Biejat and Adrian Zandberg.

“Civic Coalition and PiS are really fighting to keep the political conflict between them valid because it’s something that has served them for a long time. For younger Poles, it’s like watching dinosaurs wrestle,” said Przemysław Sadura, a sociologist from Warsaw University.

The crucial question is where those third-party voters go in the second round.

“I’m voting Zandberg and hope his good result will push Trzaskowski to offer the left more before the runoff,” said Joanna Jasińska, 31, an IT helpdesk worker from Cieszyn, a town of 30,000 in southern Poland.

Trzaskowski’s strategic advantage might be that his core electorate — people who will go out and vote for him regardless of circumstances — is bigger than Nawrocki’s, a poll by CBOS showed in March.