NATO allies agree to boost weapon inventories ahead of Trump-pleasing summit

NATO defense ministers agreed Thursday to significantly increase air defenses and land forces to fend off Russia — which means a dramatic boost in military spending in the coming years. 

The ministers approved an overall increase of 30 percent in new requirements for military equipment — called capability targets — ahead of a summit of alliance leaders in The Hague later this month.

“Today was historic and the summit will also be historic,” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte told reporters after the meeting.

“We live in a different world, we live in a more dangerous world,” Rutte said, referring to worries that Russia may be preparing to attack NATO. “We are safe today, but if we don’t [increase spending] we are not safe in the foreseeable future.”

It’s the first time since the Cold War that capability targets have been linked to actual regional defense plans. The details are classified, but Rutte previously said that priorities include air and missile defense, large formations of land forces, long-range capabilities and logistics.  

In 2023, NATO allies agreed at the Vilnius summit on new regional defense plans to defend against a possible Russian attack. Since then, NATO’s top military brass have been working on requirements in terms of military equipment, workforce and exercises to actually implement the plans. 

'Not an audience of one'

Thursday's meeting of defense ministers sets the ground for The Hague, where the alliance is bracing for the return of Donald Trump to NATO.

The U.S. president has repeatedly called into question Washington’s commitment to the military alliance; during his first term as president he had to be talked out of withdrawing the U.S. from NATO.

The Trump administration insists that European fears that the U.S. will abandon its security commitments are unfounded. In one sign that may calm worries, Trump this week nominated Air Force Lieutenant General Alexus Grynkewich to lead U.S. and NATO forces in Europe. That role has belonged to an American since the alliance was founded, but reports had suggested Trump was prepared to hand the position over to a European.

Rutte pushed back against the broad perception that NATO allies are bending over backward to placate Trump and avoid any clashes at the summit — including over Ukraine. “We’re not doing it for an audience of one, we’re doing it to keep one billion people safe,” he told reporters.

However, the final statement from The Hague summit is expected to be very brief so as not to risk a negative reaction from Trump. It is still not clear whether there will be any reference to Ukraine.

"We’re at break-up point," said one NATO official of the state of the alliance, speaking on condition of anonymity. They added that allies were aiming to keep the language as simple as possible to avoid provoking Trump.

More money for more weapons 

To reach the capability targets approved on Thursday, NATO leaders are expected to agree to boost defense spending to 5 percent of GDP at The Hague — including 3.5 percent on purely military expenditures and 1.5 percent for defense-related items such as military mobility, Rutte told reporters.

Trump first floated the 5 percent figure months ago, a big leap from the alliance's current target of at least 2 percent of GDP.

Spain, one of the last holdouts, said earlier on Thursday it wouldn’t veto a deal on the new goal. 

Details still need to be hammered out, including the deadline for reaching that threshold and the definition of what qualifies for both spending categories.

Rutte has suggested a 2032 deadline for the new spending goal, but Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said ahead of the meeting that 2032 was too late and that allies should commit to reach 5 percent within five years instead.  That view is shared by other frontline states concerned about a Russian attack.

Members will have to present plans for yearly increases to show their progress toward the new objective, Rutte told reporters. 

Reaching the 30 percent increase in capabilities will require a lot of cash, especially as some nations still haven't reached earlier goals set in 2021. The Dutch government has estimated that meeting them will cost an extra €19 billion a year, on top of the current 2 percent of GDP defense budget. 

The bulk of the effort will have to be made in the next five to 10 years, but the goals span the next two decades and will be reassessed every four years, a senior NATO official said. 

Ahead of Thursday’s meeting, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stated that Germany will need to add 50,000 to 60,000 active-duty soldiers to its current strength of 182,000 to meet NATO’s new objectives.  

Chris Lunday, Csongor Körömi and Paul McLeary contributed reporting.