EU’s top Russian LNG buyers wary of Brussels’ gas ban

BRUSSELS — The European Union’s two biggest buyers of Russian liquefied natural gas are refusing to endorse Brussels' plan to ban Moscow’s gas, arguing they need more reassurances on the economic and legal consequences of the move before making a decision.

France, the bloc’s top buyer, told POLITICO it prefers a strategy of hunting for alternative supplies. Belgium, in second place, wants a report detailing the economic fallout before making a decision.

“What we're defending is a European strategy of diversification … which is already on the table,” French Energy Minister Marc Ferracci told POLITICO, referencing France’s plan to replace Russian supplies with Qatari products.

The hesitation runs counter to the EU's other major Russian LNG importers: Spain and the Netherlands. Both told POLITICO they are eager to back the upcoming legislation, which would end Russian gas contracts, banning short-term purchases this year and long-term contracts by 2027. In theory, that would help the countries escape contracts which will otherwise will keep them buying Russian LNG for years.

Getting all four countries on board will be crucial for the European Commission, the EU’s executive, as it seeks support for its proposal, which is expected next month. Hungary and Slovakia are likely to try to derail the ban, keen to keep pumping in cheaper Russian energy. And numerous politicians and industry figures are calling for a post-war return to Russian energy, given Europe’s high power bills and struggling economy. 

That means having the biggest importers on board would send a powerful signal. 

Last year, the four countries imported 16.77 million tons of Russian LNG, according to the Kpler commodities platform, representing 97 percent of the EU’s total imports and more than half of Moscow’s global exports. Together, they spent more than €6 billion on purchases of the fuel.

Fuel fissures

For Spain and the Netherlands, the bloc’s third- and fourth-biggest buyers of Moscow’s LNG, the EU’s plans represent a welcome opportunity to end their energy ties to Russia.

“Spain supports the European Commission's proposal to ban Russian gas imports as soon as possible … through a common EU position,” said a spokesperson from Spain’s ecological transition ministry. Currently, the country is required to buy supplies from Russia’s Novatek until 2042 under a long-term contract signed with domestic energy firm Naturgy.

The Netherlands, too, “continues to support the full phase-out of Russian gas,” a spokesperson for the Dutch economy ministry told POLITICO. 

“We are looking forward to the legal proposal from the European Commission, enabling us to eliminate the remaining volumes.” The Netherlands is currently locked into a long-term supply contract overseen by French energy giant TotalEnergies until 2032.

But France is more skeptical, pointing to a multi-decade contract signed with Qatar in 2023 to import new volumes. 

While Paris “supports the strategy of de-risking Russian fossil fuels,” France's Ferracci said, “a ban at European level means that nobody can import [Russian] LNG.”

Ferracci also raised questions about the “legal certainty” of the Brussels proposal, tapping into fears that private firms may face Russian lawsuits over abandoned contracts. France’s TotalEnergies, for instance, is currently bound by a supply contract with Novatek until 2032, and owns a 20 percent stake in the Yamal project which operates an LNG facility in Siberia.

“The stock of existing contracts … needs to be legally protected,” he said.

The Commission did not respond to a request for comment by POLITICO, but has previously insisted its proposals are legally watertight.

Belgium, which is set to continue receiving and storing Russian LNG until 2035, also wants the EU executive to go further to allay its concerns.

Before the EU unveils its proposals, “we ask the Commission to present an in-depth impact assessment” of the measures, Belgian Energy Minister Mathieu Bihet said. The country will hold technical talks on the impact of the measures on Belgium’s LNG infrastructure, he said.

The bloc’s capitals are currently considering a bloc-wide push for an economic and legal analysis, according to a draft declaration seen by POLITICO. An EU official said the Commission was preparing a “document that will analyze the impact” of the measures.

“It’s necessary to wait for the legal package … to have a better idea of all the implications for our country,” Bihet added.

That divide is largely down to gas supplies, said Laura Page, an LNG analyst at Kpler, with Spain exiting winter with more replenished gas storages relative to France and Belgium. 

Still, a ban would not cause a supply crisis, she said, as all countries could buy increased volumes from the U.S. and Canada, which are set to ramp up capacity starting next year.