Cooling May inflation paves way for ECB rate cut

Soft inflation numbers for May from the eurozone’s biggest countries have made an interest rate cut next week from the European Central Bank all but a sure thing.

Italy, Spain and Germany all reported inflation either roughly at or below the ECB’s target of 2 percent in May, while France on Wednesday had reported its lowest inflation rate in five years at 0.6 percent.

Together, the four countries account for nearly three-quarters of eurozone gross domestic product, and the releases bear out assessments from the central bank that the immediate impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war will be to push prices down overall.

That’s been the case especially with energy prices, which have fallen globally as expectations of weaker demand from China have combined with higher output from key exporters such as Saudi Arabia to drive global benchmarks down to their lowest since February 2021. Media reports suggest the OPEC+ cartel may announce plans this weekend to hike production again in the summer.

The biggest federal states in Germany, the bloc’s largest economy, reported inflation rates of between 2.0 and 2.3 percent, pointing to a modest decline in the national rate. The federal statistics office Destatis will publish a preliminary estimate at 2 p.m. In all of the states’ releases, a sharp drop in prices for fuel and household energy was partly offset by a strong rise in prices for insurance.

Elsewhere, Spain and Italy both reported a decline in their inflation rates to 1.9 percent.

The ECB’s Governing Council meets next week on June 4-5. It was already widely expected to lower its policy interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2 percent, and this morning’s data will reinforce that expectation.